Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
