Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
