This Remarkable Golden Spell Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
It was eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the performer he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.